Fuzzy Modeling of the Climate Change Effect to Drought and to Wild Fires in Cyprus

This is an intelligent modeling of the evolution of drought and forest fires, due to climate change in Cyprus. Original annual wild fire data records (1979-2009) and data regarding meteorological parameters were used. A flexible modeling approach was proposed towards the determination of drought risk indices in all of the country. Cyprus was divided in eight polygons corresponding to eight meteorological stations. A Fuzzy Inference Rule Based System (FIRBS) was developed to produce the drought risk indices vectors for the forest regions under study. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the heat index vectors was performed. Forest fires distribution through the island was addressed. All of the results were stored by using an ArcGIS, (version 9.3) spatial data base that enables more comprehensive presentation of the most risky areas. There is a significant increase of drought in the island and this has a serious effect in the problems of forest fires and heat indices.